National weather forecasters are predicting above-normal activity for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which starts Saturday, thanks to La Nina conditions and higher ocean temperatures.
Saturday is also the start of the first of two disaster preparedness tax holidays. Many items that Floridians might stock up on for hurricane season are tax-free through June 14, including tarps, tie-down kits under $100 and portable generators under $3,000.
The next disaster preparedness tax holiday is Aug. 24 to Sept. 6.
The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) said the 2024 season, which runs through Nov. 30, is likely to have 17 to 25 named storms with eight to 13 storms developing into hurricanes. An average year is considered 14 named storms.
Of those hurricanes, four to seven of them are predicted to be major hurricanes, measuring Category 3 (111 to 125 mph) or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The 2023 season was also considered above-average with 20 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which were classified as major. Hurricane Idalia, a Category 3 storm, was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. during the 2023 season, coming ashore in August near Keaton Beach.
The 2023 El Nino conditions are giving way to La Nina conditions, which represent a cooling of the Pacific Ocean temperatures and generally bring an increased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, according to a NOAA press release.
Higher ocean temperatures, which played a role in the above-average 2023 hurricane season, again are expected to increase activity in the Atlantic region, forecasters said.
NOAA researchers are using two new forecasting models this season – one of which will help represent the role of the ocean in hurricane intensity and another that predicts the probability that a tropical cyclone will intensify rapidly.
Although NOAA is predicting a more active season, a University of South Florida researcher says that Florida homeowners shouldn’t fear their insurance rates will go up based simply on the storm predictions.
Randy Dumm, the director of the The Baldwin Group School of Risk Management and Insurance at USF Sarasota-Manatee, said in a school press release that the state’s insurance markets are more complex and competitive and there’s not a direct link between forecasts and insurance costs.
Price spikes, such as Florida last saw after Hurricane Ian in 2022, are a result of what actually occurs during a season, Dumm said. Risks based on Florida weather are already built into existing insurance rates.
Florida has enacted legislative reform in 2022 and 2023 to help stabilize the property insurance market. According to a May report from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, 10 insurance companies have filed no increases to their insurance rates while eight companies have filed a rate decrease for 2024.
By the end of 2023, Florida had approximately 7.45 million residential insurance policies in effect. More than 80% of these policies are written by authorized insurers versus by the Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the state’s not-for-profit insurer of last resort, or by Surplus Lines insurance companies, which are not among the authorized insurers but may provide coverage for people who cannot find coverage elsewhere.
The Citizens Property Insurance Corp. has lowered its number of policies by about 200,000, and reported a net income of $746 million in 2023, compared to a $2.2 billion loss in 2022.
Insurance expert Mark Friedlander of the Insurance Information Institute told Axios Tampa Bay that Florida was in a “much stronger place” ahead of the 2024 storm season.
